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Poll shows serious leakage of support from NDP, Liberals to Tories

An online poll this week showed a strong movement of people who voted Liberal or NDP in 2015 to the federal Conservatives
20210903 Federal election signs RV
Candidate signs near the intersection of Victoria Road and Grange Street are pictured in this GuelphToday file image from 2021

Close to a majority of Village Media readers say they would vote for the Conservatives if a federal election was held today, an online poll showed this week:

We also asked how readers had voted in 2015, Canada's last big change election. The details of this poll are very revealing, especially looking at people who voted Liberal or NDP in 2015. Notably, just over half of 2015 NDP supporters say they'd vote for the party this time around, and about a third say they'd vote Conservative.

Broadly, people's federal preferences map on to their provincial preferences, especially for Liberal and Conservative/PC voters. However, a noticeable number of provincial New Democrats appeal to vote Liberal in federal elections, and it would appear that most Ontario Green voters vote for some other party federally.

Here's the same poll relationship, presented the other way around. Notably, more than a quarter of provincial Liberals say they'd vote for a different party federally, though there isn't much consensus about what party that is.

As we've seen in previous polls, party support is sharply gendered:

And support is very severely divided by age. It's not hard to look at this graph and wonder if the federal Liberals have a growing generational problem that will cause them deep issues in the future:

This graph is not out of line with expectations, though I'm interested in the chunk of people who say they would vote Conservative despite having a somewhat unfavourable view of party leader Pierre Poilievre:

And conversely, we can see a group of Liberals with a somewhat unfavourable view of Justin Trudeau, New Democrats, interestingly, are consistently negative about Poilievre, and seem more likely to have a tolerant attitude to Trudeau:

Readers opposed to the Emergencies Act are overwhelmingly likely to be federal Conservatives ...

... and are two-thirds of those saying Ukraine should compromise with Russia over territory:

Patrick Cain

About the Author: Patrick Cain

Patrick is an online writer and editor in Toronto, focused mostly on data, FOI, maps and visualizations. He has won some awards, been a beat reporter covering digital privacy and cannabis, and started an FOI case that ended in the Supreme Court
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