Update: Ontario health officials have released new modelling numbers for the COVID-19 pandemic.
While the growth in cases has slowed since earlier in November when the modelling suggested that we could be at 3,500 to 6,500 daily cases by this point, it has not yet plateaued.
Officials say COVID-19's reproduction number is fluctuating around one, which means that Ontario is at a "critical juncture" where case rates may change quickly, however, infection rates will vary greatly between and within public health units.
Currently, infection rates in Ontario are growing at 2.47 per cent, as reported over the last two weeks. Modelling suggests if infections grow at a rate of three per cent over the next month, the province could end up with roughly 5,000 daily cases and nearly 400 people in the ICU by Jan. 8.
The worst-case scenario, based on the five-per-cent growth rate that Ontario saw briefly in November prior to reinstating lockdowns in Toronto and Peel, points to nearly 10,000 daily cases by early January.
Top docs say the province's COVID-19 case counts continue to grow, however, positivity rates appear to be flattening. Officials say this indicates there has been some positive impact from currently imposed restrictions.
That said, epidemiological reports indicate current lockdown restrictions in areas such as Toronto and Peel Region are not as effective as the previous provincial lockdown. Compared to restrictions put in place back in March, residents are in contact with more people outside their household and are much more mobile now.
The data suggests Ontario may see 25 deaths per day in long-term care homes within a month, and that ICU occupancy will continue to rise above 200 beds for the next month under any scenario. Officials also said that number could be higher, particularly if health interventions are relaxed.
There have been 496 long-term care home resident deaths since Aug. 1, 102 of which have been in the past seven days.
Currently, 115 long-term care homes are in outbreak, with 1,194 confirmed cases in these homes.
Dr. Kevin Brown stated in today's modelling conference that the COVID-19 hospitalization rate has risen 91.6 per cent in the last four weeks, with the rate of COVID-19 patients in ICU rising an alarming 165.9 per cent in the last four weeks.
ICU occupancies will likely be heavily concentrated in COVID-19 hot spots such as Peel and Toronto in the coming weeks.
Looking at the bigger picture, modelling indicates in the first wave, people over the age of 80 were primarily infected by COVID-19. During the second wave, positive cases have been more evenly distributed across all age groups. Dr. Brown says this is a reflection of the broad community spread of the disease.
There are also a higher number of cases with no epidemiological link in recent weeks compared with numbers released four weeks ago.
Original story:
The Ontario government will provide new COVID-19 projections today at 3 p.m.
The province's chief medical officer of health, Dr. David Williams, said earlier this week that the data will indicate whether lockdowns in Toronto and Peel Region that started two weeks ago are working, said a Canadian Press story.
The last round of projections showed case rates had plateaued, but hospitals faced increasing strain due to the pandemic.
The press conference will be streamed live, and we will carry the livestream feed, so stay tuned.
