A poll released by CBC Newsworld conducted by the Gandalf Group puts Ken Dryden in the number one spot lead the Liberal Party of Canada. Full details in the Gandalf Group news release below.
A poll released by CBC Newsworld conducted by the Gandalf Group puts Ken Dryden in the number one spot lead the Liberal Party of Canada.
Full details in the Gandalf Group news release below.
********************
There is no runaway choice among the front running candidates for the leadership of the federal Liberal Party according to a new national survey by the Gandalf Group released today that surveyed opinions among both Liberal voters and the public as a whole.
"It's still early and opinion is still forming about the candidates," commented David Herle, principal of the Gandalf Group.
"At this stage, each of the presumed frontrunners - Mr. Ignatieff, Mr. Rae, Mr. Kennedy and Mr. Dion - comes with upside potential and downside risks based on voters' perceptions," Herle said.
"Only Ken Dryden can confidently claim that he would widen the Liberal Party's appeal among voters right across the country," he added.
Among Canadians, Ken Dryden was the choice of 19 percent for Liberal leader with Bob Rae coming second at 17 percent, followed by Michael Ignatieff (10%), and Stephane Dion (8%).
Gerard Kennedy garnered only four percent support.
Among Liberals, the results were similar, with Mr. Dryden and Mr. Rae tied for top pick with 19 percent, followed by Ignatieff (12%), Dion (8%) and Kennedy (7%).
[Of the numbers that follow, the first indicates national support while the second indicates support among Liberal voters.]
Ken Dryden 19 19
Bob Rae 17 19
Michael Ignatieff 10 12
Stephane Dion 8 8
Carolyn Bennett 6 5
Gerard Kennedy 4 7
Scott Brison 3 4
Martha Hall Findlay 2 1
Joe Volpe 1 1
Hedy Fry 1 1
Don't know/refused 29 23
"Obviously, name recognition is a significant factor but the ability to attract voters from other political parties and grow the Liberal Party base is, in the long run, even more important," said Mr. Herle.
Ken Dryden offers the widest appeal among voters - with only 34 percent of Canadians saying that they are certain to not vote Liberal if he is leader.
More than 40 percent of NDP, BQ and Conservative voters would consider voting Liberal if he were leader.
For the presumed frontrunners, the picture is far more mixed:
- Bob Rae polarizes voters quite dramatically, particularly in Ontario. Well known and with a following, Mr. Rae will attract sizable consideration from current NDP and Bloc voters. However, Conservative voters are dead set against his leadership and fully 43 percent of Ontarians would be certain to not vote Liberal with him as leader.
- Stephane Dion's appeal differs dramatically between Quebec and the rest of Canada (ROC). In Quebec, Dion actually helps the Liberal Party's fortunes with 31 percent of voters in that province saying they would be certain or likely to vote Liberal if he lead the Party - meaning he is running roughly 11 percent ahead of the Party. However, his ability to attract Conservative and NDP voters in the ROC is weak.
- Michael Ignatieff suffers from comparatively low name recognition but offers the possibility of upside growth. He is capturing some of the desire of Canadians for something new and different in politics. Foreign policy will be his most difficult area. He has expertise in that area which Canadians believe is important, but is not positioned right now to benefit from the increasing desire - especially among Liberal voters - for a foreign policy more distinct from US policy.
- Gerard Kennedy is generally considered to be doing well among the Liberal membership but has yet to make an impression with the general public.
"The Party faces some difficult choices based on this data. Is it too late to take another look at Ken Dryden?" Gandalf Principal Jennifer Espey asked.
"Do you take a chance on the potential Dion upside in Quebec knowing there may be resistance to him in the rest of Canada?" Espey said.
"Is it more important to pull votes from the NDP - which Rae might do best - or from the Conservatives, which Ignatieff or Dryden are likely best placed to do?" she said.
Finally, the poll suggested the possibility that a wider debate over Mr. Ignatieff's proposal to re-open constitutional talks could become an influential factor in the race for leader.
Keeping Canada united is the single highest priority identified by Liberals in a new leader.
"If this debate over Quebec's role in the constitution heats up, it could have a determinative impact on this race's outcome," Herle observed.
"If Mr. Ignatieff were able to persuade Liberals that his suggestion would aid the cause of national unity, he could reap significant benefits," he said.
"It has equal potential to backfire if Liberals come to see the proposal as endangering constitutional peace," he concluded.
The Gandalf Group survey was conducted among 1000 adult Canadians between September 6 to 9 2006.
Its results are considered reliable with a 3.1 percent margin of error.
A copy of the full poll results can be accessed at
www.gandalfgroup.ca********************
