Last Week’s Polls

Polls are beginning to annoy me. In the past week, three organizations that had commissioned polls made announcements that tried to sway my thinking on the topic of the day. As much as I try to ignore any polling result, there is a little voice somewhere that asks me, “Why don’t you agree with the majority of people, nine times out of ten with a 3% margin of error?”

Inevitably, someone or some institution that did not fare well in the sampling of public opinion finds fault with the method of sampling or questions phrased. This, of course, makes me feel better if I am in the minority. If I happen to agree with the results, these whiners have just tasted a batch of sour grapes. The annual University Poll by Macleans is an example. That so many universities disagree with the Maclean’s poll methodology, it has thrown that poll into disrepute. It is now only a self-serving advertising gimmick used by the magazine.

Any student worth his or her salt ought to do a little research of their own before choosing an institution for higher study – and hopefully, higher learning. The weighting of the reasons why people attend a certain college or university cannot be generalized since each student may have an entirely different set of reasons for attending. An exit survey might be the best gauge of satisfaction, and a follow up survey of the success in life years after graduating might give a more honest result.

The poll of whether or not we should have our troops in Afghanistan was simply a news-making tool by the CBC. In fact, I am beginning to think that most polls commissioned by the media are simply that – newsmakers. It is a little like a quiet day at the office. Start a rumour and you will be entertained for a week.

However, after telling me that my thinking is wrong-headed on the Afghan question, the pollsters gave the results of one of their questions asked during the poll, which indicated that a very substantial number of respondents did not know the right answer. If 40% of the people asked thought we were in Afghanistan because it was because of the Americans, not a UN sanctioned mission, what does that do for their credibility in answering the rest of the poll? Were their subsequent answers influenced in any way by their distaste for George Dubyah?

As in so many cases, pollsters ask a question that their sample target may not have thought about, had the wrong information, or simply gave the pollsters an entirely wrong answer just for sport. Are the ones having a little sport the people who make up that margin of error which pollsters use to qualify their results?

The third poll last week was commissioned by local media, again trying to create some news. That poll suggested that Mayor Vic will get two votes for every one that Mayor Stan will receive. Stan questions the sample because less than 50% of eligible voters turn up at the polling stations. Who knows if they were the very ones who answered the pollster’s questions?

The problem is that for people who have not followed the affairs at City Hall, they may be confused by all the election hype and not have solid facts on which to base their choice for mayor (or council). Which mayoralty candidate do you believe when they start tossing figures around about taxes and debts? As Aunt Martha used to say, ‘Figures lie and liars figure’, so take your pick! And feeling that everyone else must know best, those who do not know may follow the herd, taking comfort in the fact that they are like the majority.

That may not make much difference in the election on Monday, but I wonder if the same thing is going to happen in Kashechewan when the First Nations people decide whether to move or not. Will some people vote for a solution based on what they think the majority wants? This is a very serious issue and one hopes that everyone involved has all the information needed to make the right decision. Unlike our votes for mayor and council, the results of the Kashechewan vote will last for more than four years.

I prefer to listen to Martha’s dog Bingo, because he knows polls are good for one thing only. . .