Happy Birthday, Fidel

On August 13, Fidel Castro will reach his eightieth year and some folk in Washington DC are planning a party for him. While the Cuban ex-pats in Miami were cheering in the streets when they heard the news that Fidel was ill and undergoing surgery, the boys in Washington were praying for his quick recovery. Even George begrudgingly added Fidel the atheist to his list of people that he wanted God to help.

Not that there is any love lost between the US administration and Fidel Castro, but although speeches have been prepared about bringing democracy to Cuba, the Americans are not quite ready to take on Fidel. It is not a matter of military might, for surely the US could flatten Habana as easily as they did Bagdad. And, according to the ex-pats, the Cuban people would greet the Americans in the street waving palm fronds after the invasion. Donald Rumsfeld has heard that one before, and although he may be many things, he is not stupid.

The Washington planners need a good solid reason to go into Cuba. They dare not use the weapons of mass destruction ploy again because even Tony Blair would not buy that one twice. The chant of ‘bringing democracy to a communist country’ is a message to be taken with a grain of salt when the charges of election fraud are still making the rounds after the last two US presidential elections. Free elections in Iraq seem to be leading to a civil war; Lebanon elected a number of Hezbollah and the Palestinians put Hamas in control, while to the northeast, the Afghans are torn between support for the Taliban and west-leaning democratically elected government.

It is not that Fidel does not believe in free elections, it is just that Cuba is a one-party state. Multi-party elections are the backbone of democracy but as any politician knows, a well-rigged election is just like a one-party race. Besides being rather ruthless in the beginning, the second-longest reigning head of state in the world must be doing something right. (The longest reigning head of state, QE II, holds her position by Divine Right, not by election.)

Even those former Cubans living in Florida know that the US cannot offered better education and health care for Castro’s Cubans, but what they can do is offer more jobs. The Cuban economy is Fidel’s biggest problem. If only Fidel had some McDonalds, things would improve! The US embargo on all things Cuban, except smuggled cigars, has hurt the Revolution, especially since the crumbling of the old evil Soviet Empire. But wait, there is talk in the backrooms in DC about lifting the embargo.

Suddenly, it is quite all right to play the Buena Vista Social Club records for your friends. The thing is, you see, that Cuba has discovered oil just offshore. Maybe the Cubans need a little American know-how to tap into all that oil. A little venture capital to get things rolling, for a piece of the action, of course.

The trouble is that Fidel has a new friend in power in Venezuela and Senor Chavez does not like Americanos, especially GWB. The Venezuelans know just a little about drilling for oil in the ocean and they would be happy to help Fidel. Furthermore, the President of Venezuela has made a friend in Moscow (Habana’s former backer) by purchasing a little military hardware from Putin. George on the other hand, thought he needed to lecture Vladimir about human rights, but then anyone can look into the eyes of the former head of the KGB and know that he is a good man.

You can begin to see the problem the strategic thinkers in Washington are facing. If Fidel makes an early exit, his brother Raul may jump into bed with Chavez who in turn is close to the Russians who are quietly backing all the wrong people in the Middle East. To make matter even worse, the Prudhomme Bay oil pipeline has sprung a number of leaks, cutting US domestic oil production by a massive 8%. All these problems just when they have finally have Steve and his Canadians back onside. A Cuban invasion would surely upset all those Canucks who vacation in Cuba.

No, the best course of action is to send Fidel a nice Hallmark birthday card and wish him another happy year. Just do not have George, Dick or Don sign it . . .