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Sudbury COVID risk rating moves to 'high' ahead of long weekend

'If community members are travelling across the province, certainly it's possible that they would have additional exposures. And you know, typically within the summer months, we usually see a decrease in cases. So, that's also concerning to us.'
2021 11 23 PHSD Public Health Sudbury and Districts Building (Sudbury.com File Photo) (2)
Public Health Sudbury & Districts offices in Greater Sudbury

GREATER SUDBURY, Ont. — Public Health Sudbury and District (PHSD) is sending out the message that COVID-19 continues to be a significant concern in the local health jurisdiction. That is being reflected in the public health COVID-19 Risk Index, which is now at the "high" level.

The COVID case positivity rate is up, the number of COVID cases in the hospital is up and the number of active COVID outbreaks has also increased. 

Katie Junkin, a health protection specialist with PHSD, said those three factors are what prompted the health unit to put the risk index up from the "moderate" rating it was sitting at last week. She said there are other indicators as well, and while they are stable, none of the indicators is decreasing at this time.

"So, the concerning trend is that things are on the rise," said Junkin.

Not used during the height of the pandemic, the risk index was only launched on June 10, and for the first month, the risk was listed as "low." Then on July 6, the risk was moved upward to "moderate." This week's change to the "high" rating means the risk is at the second highest level, with "very high" being the top rating in the index. Sudbury has not reached that rating. 

Meanwhile, the North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit tells BayToday it continues to monitor the local COVID-19 situation.

"We will not be creating a risk index for our local area, but should the COVID-19 situation drastically change we will inform the public. We continue to remind the public that the best defence against severe COVID-19 illness is to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and to receive your boosters."

Junkin could not pin down one precise reason for the move to high in Sudbury but she acknowledged an increase in summertime travel might be a factor in the risk index change. 

"It's certainly possible because we are seeing these trends across the province,” Junkin said. “So you know, if community members are travelling across the province, certainly it's possible that they would have additional exposures. And you know, typically within the summer months, we usually see a decrease in cases. So, that's also concerning to us.”

Junkin added that the BA.5 sub-variant of Omicron is also a factor because it is the predominant strain in Ontario at the moment and is considered more transmissible than previous variants. She said this is a concern because Omicron can still be transmitted when people are outdoors. 

Omicron emerged late in 2021 and is regarded by the Ontario Science Table as a mutated and more contagious version of the original coronavirus. The science table is advocating more vaccine booster shots as the best way to fight back against Omicron.  

"What we know about this, the BA.5 variant of the Omicron, which is the one that's currently predominantly circulating, is that it's highly transmissible. So what it's telling us is that even though people might be gathering outdoors, if they're in close contact, it can still be transmitted. So really there's the importance of physical distancing, if people are in close contact, even if it's outdoors.

She said it is not known how long the high-risk rating will continue, but Junkin said PHSD will keep a close eye on hospital admissions and case counts of those who are found to be seriously sick.

"So really, in terms of how long it will last, really depends on what continues to happen within the community. And what we know is that our best forms of protection at the individual level in terms of reducing the severity of an outcome is continued vaccination, staying up to date on those vaccinations and getting your booster," said Junkin.

She added that people may get tired of hearing it, but the basic pandemic precautions are still the best advice.

"This includes masking, vigilant hand washing, physical distancing, the inclusion of ventilation if you're indoors, and also staying home if you're ill," Junkin said.

On the vaccination front, Junkin said the health unit is stepping up the program and making it easier for more people to access their vaccine booster shots. PHSD will also be offering vaccines this week for children aged six months to five years, she said. 

Junkin said people have to understand that vaccines are not a forever thing. After a while, vaccines lose their strength, she said. However, she added the public health community has seen that people who get vaccinations are still better able to fight the worst of COVID more so than those who are not vaccinated.

"So we are certainly finding that those who ended up in hospital are more often than not, unvaccinated," said Junkin.

She also said some people who were previously infected with COVID will enjoy a brief period of immunity, but it will not last. 

"And the same goes with the vaccination, they provide a boosting of your immune system, but what we're finding based on research is that immunity doesn't last forever. Okay. That's why we are seeing these boosters. And so, even though people may have been vaccinated with their first two doses, we are trying to I guess, harp in some ways on the importance of getting those booster shots because the immunity will wane over time," Junkin explained. 

Len Gillis covers health care and mining for Village Media's Sudbury.com.


Len Gillis

About the Author: Len Gillis

Graduating from the Journalism program at Canadore College in the 1970s, Gillis has spent most of his career reporting on news events across Northern Ontario with several radio, television and newspaper companies. He also spent time as a hardrock miner.
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