Will there be a closer race to become the next member of Parliament for Nipissing–Timiskaming than there has been in the last two elections?
Since a narrow loss to Jay Aspin in 2011, Anthony Rota won by healthy margins in each of the next two elections but, according to elections results and recent polling data, the gap between the Liberal incumbent and the NDP is narrowing.
One day into this federal election campaign, the Liberal Party of Canada and Rota lead the way in Nipissing–Timiskaming with a vote projection of 36.9% (with a margin of error of +/- 6.8%), according to 338Canada. New Democratic Party candidate Scott Robertson is second in the riding with 27.6% (+/- 6.3%) and the Conservative Party of Canada's Steven Trahan is polling third at 23.8% (+/- 5.7%). People's Party of Canada candidate Greg Galante is polling at 7% (+/- 3.8%) while the Green Party of Canada has not declared a local candidate.
Support for Rota dropped between the two Trudeau-led election victories by the Liberals — a majority in 2015 and a minority in 2019 — and, according to this election's early polling data, it has continued to trend down.
Examining the elections in 2015 and 2019 — and 338Canada's projections for the Sept. 20 election — Rota has gone from winning a 51.9% share of votes cast in the riding in 2015 to 40.5% in 2019 to the current projection of 36.9% (+/- 6.8%)).
The Conservatives have seen their numbers in Nipissing–Timiskaming creep down from 29.3% in 2015 to 27.2% in 2019 to the current projection of 23.8% (+/- 5.7%).
Meanwhile, the NDP is in the midst of a trending upward swing of support from 16.2% in 2015 to 20.5% in 2019 to its projected 27.6% (+/- 6.3%) for next month's vote.
The 338Canada project, created by political columnist and analyst Philippe J. Fournier is billed as a "statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, the electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data."
Projections for all 338 electoral districts are available and, to date, the model has covered six provincial elections and the 2019 federal election. In total, 871 electoral districts were projected by the model and it correctly identified the winner in 783 districts — a success rate of 90%.