Iraqi Election

Prime Minister Paul Martin has generously offered George Bush to send Canadian officials to Iraq to assist in monitoring the January election. Whoa Paul, let us think about this for a minute.

The United States seems bound and determined to hold these elections as promised many months ago, but perhaps they should step back and consider whether Iraq is ready for free and open elections. Understandably, the US wants to get an Iraqi government in power so they can make an exit from the occupied country, but there is little value in holding elections unless the result is something the people can trust and believe in.

Looking at the recent election in the Ukraine and the many problems they had, it should be a wake-up call as to what will happen in Iraq. If the system failed so badly in a country that was relatively calm before the election, what will happen in Iraq when it may be worth your life to attend a polling station? With armed insurgents or anti-government, anti-American gangs at large, there will undoubtedly be an increase in the violence leading up to the election. Without an Iraqi army or even adequate police services, one wonders if there has even been a safe period when the candidates could campaign.

As one Canadian general commented on all the lessons learned in Bosnia, one was that you cannot have elections until there is perceived safety and stability in the country. (Another thing we learned was that the old idea of Peacekeepers had changed.) If the election results are to be trusted, the electorate must have confidence that everything proceeded in a truly democratic way; there was no coercion at the polls; the ballots were secure and counted correctly; and everyone who was eligible to vote had the opportunity to do so.

With an estimated 100,000 Iraqis killed in the past year and hundreds of thousands of people displaced from their homes, how in heavens name would you even prepare a voter’s list? Or do you just show up in your old neighbourhood and get your hand stamped once you have voted? And what about the people who have fled the violence – how and where are they going to vote?

The Americans may have this whole election thing down pat, but given that they have problems (read Ohio this year, Florida last time) when they have four years to prepare for the big election, it just isn’t going to go smoothly in Iraq in January. Fulfilling their obligation to have an election takes more than what appears to be happening now in Iraq. Will American troops guarding the polling stations give a sense of security or will they draw fire down on themselves and inflict collateral damage on would-be voters?

And Paul, have you missed all those beheadings of foreigners by the anti-coalition forces? When the United Nations, Doctors Without Borders and Care International find the conditions too dangerous in Iraq right now, you want to send Canadians into the melee? It is one thing to be roughed up in the Ukraine but quite another to have your head separated from your body in Iraq. When the time is right, then we can go in and help them with their election – if they want us.

By the way Paul, just who were you going to send? Civil servants, military personnel, RCMP or volunteer Iraqi expatriates? Did you ask or tell them yet? Or is the Liberal caucus going to go en masse?

The other problem is whether the Iraqis are ready for or want our style of democracy. Right now, most Iraqis would settle for a little peace and quiet and a chance to get back to daily routines. They, and other Arab nations, have managed somehow for many years with their own system of governance. Granted that it may not meet our standards of what we call democracy, but that too is an evolving system. We in North America are just now beginning to look at ideas like proportional representation as a better way of reflecting the people’s choices in an election.

The election in Afghanistan came off with good results, but let us wait a few months to see if the elected government can bring the warlords to heel. Perhaps that election went just smoothly enough to convince the Americans and Allies to exit the country and then remnants of the Taliban and war lords (funded by the poppies) will surface again.

I fear that if the American troops make too quick an exit from Iraq, the country will dissolve into a civil war. In retrospect it was wrong to go into the country (not wrong to depose Saddam) but hopefully the decision to leave the country will be taken with a little more circumspection. Let us not, as Canadians, lend support to a premature election process in Iraq.

FYI - I’ll be at Gulliver’s Friday, December 17 from 7 to 9 p.m. for a launch of my book, Games Men Play. Catchfire Press, Gulliver’s and I would be happy to have you join us for readings and refreshments.